Stirling SiriCommercial Insights for Emerging Markets
Case Study
John Deere Thailand operations
BTB trading and post-BTB trading · 2015–2025
A decade of statutory accounts across Deere's three integrated Thai entities — sales, client finance, and service — examined through the PBWC framework.
2017–2020 · BTB period2021–2025 · post-BTB period
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Context
Three businesses. One operation.
Deere & Co's fully integrated commercial presence in Thailand
Wirtgen wins the tender and delivers the machine. JD Leasing finances the purchase. JD Thailand services the asset over its working life — typically a decade or more of recurring revenue. Each stage depends on the one before it.
In September 2024 the SEC found that from late 2017 to 2020, Wirtgen Thailand secured government tenders through improper payments — Buy-the-Business (BTB) practices — to officials of the Royal Thai Air Force, the Department of Highways and the Department of Rural Roads. Deere self-reported, cooperated fully and fully remediated the conduct. The frontline team was refreshed and the compliance programme was comprehensively overhauled.
The accounts of all three entities — filed with the Thai company registry 2015–2025 — provide a complete eleven-year financial record of what BTB practices cost, and what their removal produced.
BTB period · 2017–2020
A growing economy. A loss-making business.
Underperforming a strong market, funded by borrowed capital
Cumulative net result
−฿116m
4-year period total
Average working capital
฿94m
net of ฿10.8bn turnover
Average net margin
−1.4%
on combined revenues
WC as % of turnover
3.5%
capital locked in operations
Thailand's economy grew at 4.1–4.2% in 2017–2018 with a ฿1.9 trillion government infrastructure programme in active deployment. Wirtgen's turnover fell 47% in 2017 and a further 24% in 2018.
The ฿94m working capital was not freely available liquidity. It was the thin net of three borrowed positions — supplier credit at Wirtgen, lease receivables at JD Leasing, and deep negative working capital at JD Thailand funded by Deere parent intercompany accommodation throughout.
Post-BTB period · 2021–2025
A volatile economy. A profitable business.
Tracking a difficult market, building a war-chest on owned capital
Cumulative net result
+฿119m
5-year period total
Working capital 2025
฿1,191m
equity-funded, unencumbered
Average net margin
+2.3%
on lower, cleaner turnover
WC as % of turnover
53.4%
capital liberated from operations
Thailand's economy delivered 1.5–2.9% growth annually — modest and volatile. Against that backdrop, the business returned to profitability and generated positive cash at every margin level.
The ฿1,191m working capital in 2025 is structurally different from the BTB period's ฿94m. It is equity-funded and owned. The PBWC dynamic — the Profitability–Breakeven–Working Capital pattern that BTB practices impose on any business that relies on them — runs in reverse, exactly as the framework predicts.
Outlook
The war-chest and the next expansion.
A compliant business, positioned for Thailand's infrastructure pipeline
BTB 2017–2020
−฿116m
฿94m avg WC — borrowed
−1.4% avg margin
Underperformed growth
Post-BTB 2021–2025
+฿119m
฿1,191m WC — owned
+2.3% avg margin
Tracked volatile market
The Ministry of Transport has outlined 20 projects worth ฿1.38 trillion. Wirtgen's 2025 turnover recovered to ฿1,238m — its highest since acquisition by John Deere — won on merit through competitive tendering.
The business enters the next Thai expansion cycle with clean governance, proven competitive tender capability, and over ฿1bn of deployable working capital.
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